Beat writers split if Syracuse can defeat North Carolina
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Syracuse has 11 games left in the regular season, most recently defeating Georgia Tech 80-63 in Atlanta, Georgia. Joe Girard III scored 28 points in the matchup, eclipsing 20 points for the fifth time in seven games. SU brought a full-court press after struggling against GT in the first half, leading to a 17-0 run which gave Syracuse complete control over the afternoon.
The Orange are back at the JMA Wireless Dome for its only matchup this year against North Carolina, who have been on the brink of entering the AP’s top-25 rankings for the last few weeks. UNC also leads the Atlantic Coast Conference in scoring offense this season, averaging 79.6 points per game.
Here’s what our beat writers expect to happen on Tuesday night:
Anish Vasudevan (17-3)
The Long Goodbye
North Carolina 75, Syracuse 68
This Syracuse-UNC matchup came at the perfect time. SU proved it could hang around against Virginia and then Miami, two pillars of the ACC, and now the Orange are ready to conquer North Carolina, a team that has matched its success so far in the conference.
The cards are there for Syracuse to win, but North Carolina has the stronger hand. While Girard erupted to the tune of 28 points at Georgia Tech, RJ Davis was only two points shy of that against a much better NC State squad. Armando Bacot, the reigning ACC Player of the Week, collected over 15 rebounds in UNC’s last three games and recorded his 11th and 12th double-doubles during that span. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels’ defense has held teams to under 70 points for five-straight games.
On top of that, North Carolina gets 23.4% of its scoring from the free-throw line, ranking 11th-best nationally, according to KenPom. It forced the Wolfpack into foul trouble throughout its most recent matchup, something that could be detrimental against SU with foul-prone Jesse Edwards.
Syracuse has played its best basketball this season as of late, but it’s heading into a brutal three-game stretch. Unless the Orange surprise North Carolina, this loss could be the start of another descent out of NCAA Tournament contention.
Connor Smith (18-2)
Not your grandma’s Tar Heels
Syracuse 75, North Carolina 73
UNC is probably the better team in this game, but it’s also very beatable. In past years, the Tar Heels have played a run-and-gun style oriented around quick offense, offensive rebounds and strong 3-point shooting. This North Carolina team, despite being ranked preseason No. 1, is still the 24th-best team in the country, per KenPom, but is a bad 3-point shooting team (283th-best nationally) and doesn’t crash the offensive glass like vintage Tar Heels teams under Roy Williams (their offensive rebounding percentage is 146th in the country). UNC plays at a much slower tempo than normal, too.
All of this makes this a winnable game for Syracuse. The Orange should’ve beaten then-No. 17 Miami a week ago, and are playing strong basketball right now. North Carolina typically always outplays SU on the boards, but if Maliq Brown plays at least 25 minutes, I think Syracuse should be able to keep up. To add on, North Carolina only has one player who regularly makes 3s (Davis), and the Orange’s zone — and possibly some pressing in the second half — should force UNC into shots it doesn’t want to take.
If this was the kind of North Carolina team that could hit 3-pointers, notch double-digit offensive rebounds and play at an intense speed for 40 minutes, Syracuse wouldn’t be able to keep up. This year, though, I think the Orange can beat the Tar Heels for just the fourth time since joining the ACC.
Anthony Alandt (14-6)
Heel YEAH
Syracuse 85, North Carolina 82
It’s time to see whether or not Syracuse is actually a legitimate NCAA Tournament team. After sputtering out of the gate this season, it feels as though this young — though quickly maturing — team is capable of making some noise throughout the rest of the regular season and sneak into the Big Dance once again (cue up the old “Syracuse loves to rest on the bubble” trope). Miami was so close, but youth got the best of the Orange. Virginia, on the road, was another nail-biter, but the Cavaliers proved they simply had more talent.
The three conference losses for Syracuse have come by a combined 13 points, and North Carolina provides a perfect platform for the Orange to showcase what they can really do at their best. UNC also lost to Pittsburgh and UVA, and is shooting just 31.6% on 3-pointers. Yes, defensively, it is likely to give Syracuse fits — especially if Girard struggles and there’s no help for Edwards on the boards. But UNC hasn’t really been tested by a good ACC opponent since Jan. 10. The Orange inside the JMA Wireless Dome can play just well enough, just physical enough to pull through and upset the Tar Heels, moving to 14-7 and 7-3 in conference play.
