Opponent Preview: What to know about 8-16 Florida State

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Syracuse finally stopped the bleeding on a three-game Atlantic Coast Conference losing streak, using a late second-half surge to beat Boston College and move back over .500 in conference play. That game was preceded by two last-second losses and a road beat down from Virginia Tech. Now, it heads down to Florida State for its only regular season matchup against the Seminoles this season.

Florida State is in the midst of its worst season since 2004-05. After a disastrous 2-9 nonconference record – including upsets at the hands of Stetson, Troy and Siena – the Seminoles sit at 8-16. The disappointing 2022-23 campaign has puzzled even longtime head coach Leonard Hamilton, who told the Tallahassee Democrat late last week that he “miscalculated some things.” He added that some players he thought were returning didn’t, and the current state of college basketball’s transfer portal hindered this year’s team.

Jaylan Gainey and Cam’Ron Fletcher suffered season-ending injuries. Seminoles’ big man Naheem McLeod has missed four games, and Baba Miller has seen limited time following an NCAA suspension. FSU has seen worse luck than nearly every other program this season.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Seminoles (8-16, 6-7 ACC) prior to Wednesday night:

All-time series

Syracuse leads 9-6.

Last time they played

At the end of last season, one of the worst seasons in Syracuse basketball history, the Orange hung one last win to move back to .500. The 96-57 walloping of Florida State in the first round of the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn stood as the last bright spot in a tumultuous season that ended the following day with a close loss against top-seeded Duke.

Syracuse notched 49 points in the first half and entered the locker room with a 23-point lead. Throughout the electric first half, the Orange broke off a 17-2 run, keyed by Cole Swider’s 11 points during that span, including three 3-pointers.

The lead ballooned to 70-34 at one point in the second half after another 15-2 run, as the Seminoles struggled against the Orange’s zone. Swider — who also finished with his sixth double-double of the season — led a group of four Syracuse players who notched double-digit points. They shot 51.4% from the field and went 7-for-15 from deep, heavily outscoring the Seminoles in the paint and grabbing 33 fast break points.

Only Matthew Cleveland scored more than nine points as FSU turned in one of its worst shooting performances of the season, firing just 12-for-68 from the field and 8% from deep. According to KenPom, the only time Florida State was favored was with just under six minutes into the game, and it was by 0.2%.

The Seminoles report

Despite just a 25% winning percentage and ranking as KenPom’s 171st team in the country, the Seminoles have compiled a 6-7 conference record and have a chance to tie the Orange in the ACC standings by winning Wednesday night.

With few returning players and an average Division-I experience of 1.69 years, Florida State has struggled with shooting this season. Throughout its nine losses to start the year, it surpassed 70 points just twice, and was held to 66 and 63 points in recent losses to NC State and Miami.

The Seminoles are connecting on less than 50% of shots from inside the arc and on 34.7% of 3-pointers. Hamilton, whose team is in flux due to the transfer portal and a flurry of graduates, said “the model we’re using, we’re probably a year late to believing the portal was needed.” Even their key contributors — Caleb Mills, Cleveland and Darin Green — have middled through the year statistically with the rest of the team.

KenPom odds

Syracuse has a 61% chance of winning, with a projected score of 77-74.

How Syracuse beats Florida State

Syracuse needs to feed Jesse Edwards and open shooters on the outside. The Orange demonstrated against Boston College that they can definitely create consistent scoring opportunities in order to mitigate possible scoring droughts that have hindered it throughout this season. They got off to a good start, despite keeping Boston College in the game until midway through the second half, but made shots and let Edwards eat down low.

It’s unlikely that Florida State will let either Miller or Cam Corhen work one-on-one against Edwards underneath the basket, seeing how poorly it worked for the Eagles. He’ll get roughed up more than he did on Saturday. The Orange completely dominated the boards and outscored Florida State last year inside the paint, so it’s likely to happen again if Syracuse works inside as much as it did against Boston College. It needs help from Maliq Brown and Chris Bell, though, who didn’t shoot or rebound well.

Stat to know: 7.3%

Florida State has had one clear strength this season: steals. Ranking 10th in the country, the Seminoles’ 7.3% steal rate is a trend the Orange need to watch out for on Wednesday night. Syracuse has backed itself into close games this season that it doesn’t need to be in, and against better teams like North Carolina and Virginia, it’s lost hold of them. Even narrow wins over Louisville, Richmond and Notre Dame have shown that costly mistakes can lead to an unnecessary nail-biter.

If Syracuse isn’t careful, Florida State will use its ability to force steals and turnovers to stay close with a much more talented Orange team. Instead of a cakewalk and conference road win, the Orange could find themselves once again battling.

Player to watch: Caleb Mills, guard, No. 4

Stephanie Zaso | Digital Design Director

The former Houston guard is enjoying another successful season at the helm for the Seminoles, though he has taken a slight step back statistically from last season. Mills is averaging 12.9 points per game and is second on the team in assists with 86. He is also a solid shooter from around the court, and could provide a spark to catalyze runs for the Seminoles against Syracuse. He’s also gathered a team-leading 35 steals, which could be particularly tricky against Judah Mintz, who has had some ‘true-freshman’ moments late in games.