Beat writers predict SU will lose Empire Classic final to St. John’s
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Joe Girard erupted to a 21-point first half against Richmond at Barclays Center, but the Spiders lit up from deep in the latter period to force overtime. Head coach Jim Boeheim wasn’t pleased with the defense at the wings and corner specifically, saying forwards Benny Williams and Chris Bell allowed too many free shots. But SU stopped Richmond just enough from deep to secure the win, facing St. John’s in the Empire Classic final.
The Red Storm are 5-0 this season, breezing through a nonconference slate with the likes of Central Connecticut State and Lafayette. They defeated Temple, ranked 91st in the country according to KenPom, in the semifinals of the Brooklyn tournament. Four different players scored in double-digits against the Owls, meaning Syracuse’s zone will have to preach consistency throughout the game.
Here’s what our beat writers predict will happen against St. John’s:
Anish Vasudevan (3-1)
Zone isn’t ready
St. John’s 75, Syracuse 70
Defense was the crux of Syracuse’s team last season, and it seems to be the same this year. The Orange have a triple-J attack with Jesse Edwards, Joe Girard and Judah Mintz, who can all score the basketball. But they’ve allowed too many runs from their opponents to keep games tight when they don’t need to be.
Richmond realized it could draw out long possessions and eventually find an open man. St. John’s ranks fifth in the country, according to KenPom, in adjusted possession length. The Red Storm also have an offensive rebounding rate of 38.0%, which will test Edwards and the other forwards in the back of SU’s zone. If Syracuse passes the defensive test, this could be an easy win. But the zone is still a work in progress, and the Orange will most likely need more time.
Connor Smith (3-1)
Like the old days
St. John’s 71, Syracuse 63
Syracuse pulled out a tight, overtime win over Richmond, a middling team that’s already lost to Charleston and Wichita State. Still, it was a big win for an SU team still reeling from a double-digit loss to Colgate, and a step toward looking like a potential NCAA Tournament team. Joe Girard III hit everything in the first half, Jesse Edwards increasingly asserted his dominance as the game wore on and Judah Mintz made flashy plays not seen from a Syracuse point guard in years.
Tuesday’s game is the first real test for St. John’s this season after the Red Storm opened the season with five easy wins over teams all ranked 90th or lower in KenPom’s national rankings. SU ranks 58th, and this should be a close game. I like SJU to pull out its fourth straight win over its former Big East rival, though, using its fast pace (the Red Storm rank third nationally in adjusted tempo, per KenPom) to beat the Orange’s 2-3 zone up the floor.
During the 1980s, this was a heated Big East rivalry, with no program recording more than four straight wins over the year. Playing in New York City, this makes for an appealing early-season matchup. But Syracuse hasn’t beaten St. John’s since December 2013, and its losing streak in this series will extend to four after Tuesday night.
Anthony Alandt (2-2)
Not ready
St. John’s 79, Syracuse 67
Syracuse barely beat a Richmond team it should’ve handley taken care of in the first game of the Empire Classic. But inconsistent defensive play ultimately led to the Spiders storming back late in the game and forcing overtime. Luckily, Girard exploded for 31 points, helped along by Edwards and the emergence of Bell. The Orange did exactly what I said they needed to do to win, and still needed an extra five minutes to take care of Richmond.
St. John’s is no cakewalk. Though it has begun this season 5-0 against an inferior nonconference slate, highlighted by Nebraska, the Red Storm are averaging 83.8 points per game. Their offense is humming, ranking 52nd in 2-point shooting according to Kenpom and firing at a 35.3% clip from deep. Syracuse can do whatever it wants with St. John’s defense, but if its defense isn’t going to stand tall, there’s no way it overcomes the old Big East rival.
