Opponent preview: What to know about No. 7 North Carolina
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Syracuse bounced back from a 20-point loss to Duke on Jan. 2 with a 69-59 win over Boston College on Wednesday, marking SU’s 11th-straight over the Eagles.
It didn’t come as easy for the Orange as it had initially seemed. A once 19-point Syracuse lead turned into a Boston College 50-49 lead with less than eight minutes remaining. But a Chris Bell 3 — he led the Orange with 20 points on 8-of-14 shooting — retook the lead and Syracuse pulled away.
Maliq Brown, who made his first start of the season for the injured Naheem McLeod, scored 10 of SU’s final 15 points to help secure the win. Back at .500 in conference play, Syracuse now hits the road again to face No. 7 North Carolina, which enters riding a five-game winning streak.
Here’s everything to know about UNC (12-3, 4-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) before it hosts the SU (11-4, 2-2 ACC) on Saturday:
All-time series
UNC leads 12-4.
Last time they played
In the teams’ lone matchup last season, Syracuse came back from a 10-point second half deficit to take the lead with 21 seconds left. Joe Girard III hit a 3-pointer, giving the Orange a two-point lead — their only lead of the game. But shortly thereafter, Syracuse saw it slip away.
After making the first of two free throws, UNC’s Pete Nance hit the rim on the second, but on the rebound, Girard tipped the ball back to Nance, who scored to retake the lead for the Tar Heels. A flagrant foul by Judah Mintz after a collision with RJ Davis sealed the deal for UNC, which defeated Syracuse 72-68 on the road.
The game marked the Orange’s fourth loss by four or less points and the fourth Quadrant-I loss of the season.
“We did everything we could tonight to win this game, it got away at the last second,” then-head coach Jim Boeheim said postgame.
KenPom odds
North Carolina has a 90% chance of winning, with a projected score of 82-68.
The Tar Heels report
Sitting at the top of the ACC standings, Hubert Davis’s squad rides a five-game winning streak, including notable ranked wins over Clemson and Oklahoma. They also defeated No. 5 Tennessee in November and their three defeats are single-digit losses to No. 4 UConn, No. 6 Kentucky and Villanova.
UNC has the second-highest scoring offense in the conference with 82.5 points per game and sits in the top-15 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They’re led by the ACC’s leading scorer Davis, who averages 20.3 points per game and is one of four players that averages double-figures on the Tar Heels.
Defensively, North Carolina has limited its past four opponents to 60 points or less and leads the league in defensive rebounds (28.5), which might prove to be difficult for Syracuse as it ranks in the bottom third in Division-I with .277 offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom. Armando Bacot, who had 18 points and 8 rebounds versus SU last year, leads the team with over 10 boards a game.
How Syracuse beats UNC
Syracuse will need to be flawless versus North Carolina if it wants to leave the Tar Heel state with a massive upset. It starts on the boards. Facing the league’s top defensive rebounding and third-best offensive rebounding team means Syracuse cannot allow UNC to extend possessions nor can SU have too many quick, one-and-done possessions of its own.
It has to win the rebounding battle, similar to how Syracuse won it in the first half versus then-No. 14 Duke a couple weeks ago. Next, Syracuse can’t have the shooting night it had against Boston College, where it shot just 37%. That won’t cut it to keep up with North Carolina, which has one of the league’s top scoring offenses.
Both Bell and Brown had strong outings versus Boston College and both of those will need to continue against UNC. Brown will likely match up with Bacot in the front court, and wing players like Bell and Justin Taylor have to ensure UNC doesn’t get hot from 3, where it makes 36% of its attempts.
Stat to know: 39.7%
Through 15 games this season, the Tar Heels are just one of two ACC teams to hold their opponents to under a 40% shooting clip from the field. Limiting teams to a 39.7% make is second to just Virginia, which Syracuse lost to by 22 points.
In conference games only, opponents average just 59 points and a 33.6% conversion rate, which wouldn’t be an ideal statline for a successful outcome for Syracuse. The Orange can’t rely on just one or two players to do the bulk of the scoring.
Player to watch: Armando Bacot, center, No. 5
As UNC’s all-time career leader in double-doubles and rebounds, Bacot will be a tough task for the Orange front court. He averages 14.5 points and 10.7 rebounds and makes over 50% of his shots. He’ll match up with Brown, who performed well by limiting BC’s go-to forward Quinten Post to zero points. Bacot will look to dominate down low against the Orange, which lost their starting center to an indefinite injury.
