Our beat writers are split on whether the Orange will upset No. 4 Virginia
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Syracuse narrowly upset North Carolina last week at Olney, Maryland after Michael Leo laid in a diving goal with 12 seconds left. It broke a seven-game losing streak against Atlantic Coast Conference opponents and lifted the Orange up to No. 12 in the national rankings. Now with two straight wins against ranked opponents on the road, the Orange will travel to Virginia in hopes of taking down the 2021 national champions.
The Orange haven’t beaten the Cavaliers since that season, and enter with a 0.9% chance to make an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, with No. 4 UVA and No. 2 Duke in their way. Here is how our beat writers predict Syracuse will fare against the Cavaliers on Saturday.
Anish Vasudevan (11-2)
Virginia stopper
Syracuse 18, Virginia 16
Virginia upset Maryland in 2021 to win the national championship in one of the most entertaining lacrosse games of all time. But the Cavaliers couldn’t do anything against Syracuse that season, losing twice to the Orange, who didn’t even advance past the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
UVA isn’t winning the national championship this year, but I think Syracuse will upset it again. The Cavaliers trio of Xander Dickson, Connor Shellenberger and Payton Cormier are extremely scary for the Orange’s defense, which is still without its top defender Landon Clary. But the Orange’s attack is just as powerful, and finally proving that they’re capable of battling in the Atlantic Coast Conference. This will be a battle between two stacked offenses, possibly the highest scoring game of Syracuse’s season.
This matchup will come down to the faceoff X per usual. Petey LaSalla is reliable at the faceoff X with the 27th-best faceoff percentage nationally, and he’ll be an issue for Jack Fine or Johnny Richiusa. Still, SU defeated North Carolina despite winning just 10-of-32 faceoffs. It can win again if the other two units are performing to the best of their abilities.
Connor Smith (12-1)
End of the run
Virginia 17, Syracuse 15
It’s been a good burst from the Orange, beating ranked opponents each of the last two weeks, including last Saturday’s nail-biting 15-14 win over North Carolina. But Syracuse still has to win its next two games against No. 4 Virginia and No. 2 Duke to have a shot at an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Lose one of them, and this up-and-down season will conclude in Durham, North Carolina on the afternoon of April 29.
The Cavaliers have slipped slightly over recent weeks, with two close losses against Duke. Still, UVA has arguably the best offense in the country, ranking first in shooting percentage and second in offensive efficiency, per LacrosseReference. And the Cavaliers average 17.82 goals per game, by far the best nationally. Will Mark has been great this season, but this will be the toughest test by far, for him and for SU’s defense. The Orange’s offense has also been great — the fourth-most efficient unit nationally — and turned in its second-most efficient game of the season against the Tar Heels.
This one should be a high-scoring affair, but with so many goals — and resulting faceoffs, which has been Syracuse’s Achilles heel all season — I don’t see SU having the ball enough to win. Ultimately, this loss will be a stinger — and a season-ender.
Anthony Alandt (8-5)
‘Almost maybes’
Virginia 17, Syracuse 13
Syracuse did just enough to take down North Carolina in Olney, Maryland on a diving goal from Michael Leo with 12 seconds left in the game. Despite first half struggles on the clear and at the faceoff X, the young team adjusted at halftime and pulled together a win, its first against an ACC opponent in eight games. Don’t let the fact that Virginia lost to Duke twice this season by a combined three goals lead you to start thinking Syracuse can take down the Cavaliers, the team that averages the most ground balls per game in the country.
I think there’s a few statistics to point toward — a relatively pedestrian faceoff percentage, a poor man-down defense — that could lead one to believe that the Orange are going to have a chance. While I think that Syracuse has every opportunity to keep this one close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does pull off another upset, I don’t see Virginia’s experience faltering at home against the young SU team. Next year in a similar situation with the momentum the Orange have had and the strong second halves they’ve produced, I’ll pick Syracuse to win.
There were too many early mistakes against North Carolina that persisted long enough for me to believe UVA won’t capitalize on those and really take hold of Syracuse on Saturday.
