Beat writers predict dominant win for No. 16 Illinois
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Syracuse dropped to 3-3 with a home loss to Bryant last Saturday as the Bulldogs connected on a floater in the final seconds to escape the JMA Wireless Dome in a stunning win. Freshman point guard Judah Mintz was ejected in the first half, and fellow first-year Justin Taylor came off the bench, dropping a career-high 25 points in 26 minutes. Benny Williams, stricken with a sickness, played only nine minutes, and Mounir Hima, injured, didn’t play for the first time all season.
The Orange now travel west to face No. 16 Illinois in the final Atlantic Coast Conference-Big Ten Challenge. The Fighting Illini have gotten off to a 5-1 start, beating four teams ranked 268th or worse in KenPom’s rankings, and overcoming then-No. 8 UCLA by nine. Illinois lost to Virginia, 70-61, last Sunday in its only loss of the season.
Here’s what our beat writers think will happen when Syracuse travels to Illinois Tuesday night:
Anish Vasudevan (4-2)
No champagne in Champaign
Illinois 78, Syracuse 68
If Syracuse can’t beat a team that’s outside of the top 100, there’s no way it can beat one inside in the top 20. Illinois dominated in three straight easy nonconference matchups, including a key 79-70 win over UCLA. It will be hard for the Orange to stop Texas Tech transfer Terrence Shannon Jr., who’s shooting 47.1% from deep and averaging 20.3 points per game.
The Fighting Illini also have an average possession length of 15 seconds, per KenPom, which is 10th-best in the country. SU has shown its ability at times to force opponents like Richmond and Bryant into contested attempts late in shot clock, but not enough to prove the defense has improved. Justin Taylor and Chris Bell have emerged as other scoring options, but if Syracuse can’t defend early in the game, what Taylor and Bell contribute offensively won’t matter. If Joe Girard III has another cold night too, that will only dig a deeper hole for the Orange.
Connor Smith (4-2)
A big-time smacking
Illinois 80, Syracuse 62
Illinois is the best team Syracuse has played at this point in the season, and the best one SU will play until a trip to Virginia in early January. Add that to the fact this game is on the road, in a difficult environment, and I can’t see the Orange having much of a chance, especially given how they looked on Saturday. SU is banged up, with Mounir Hima battling an injury and Benny Williams sick.
Jesse Edwards did all he could against Bryant on the glass, and that will need to continue against the Fighting Illini, who rank 41st nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Mintz and Girard have both been inconsistent over the last few games, with Mintz’s ejection against Bryant possibly costing Syracuse a win (one it should’ve had regardless). A lack of depth and consistent scoring isn’t a good recipe to picking up a win at a top-25 team in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. With yet another nonconference loss — this one would be No. 4 for the Orange — conference play will look bleak for an SU team that has to travel to Notre Dame Saturday.
Anthony Alandt (3-3)
Orange sliced
Illinois 87, Syracuse 62
This game was going to be a rough one for the Orange at any point this season, let alone at the start and when they’re coming off a horrible loss to Bryant. There’s not a ton going well for Syracuse — save Jesse Edwards’ complete domination on the boards. It’s a good group of guys, one that can defend teams well in the paint and itself can score easily at points. But it is too inconsistent, and its shooters are too cold at the moment to hold a candle to a much better Illini team. Illinois is incredible on offense, totalling at least 79 points in all but one game this season, and it is firing at a 37.7% clip from deep through six games.
There’s just no way a middling SU team full of players still working to figure out how to play together can take down a formidable opponent like Illinois — even though the Illini themselves don’t have much experience. It’ll look pretty bleak for Syracuse, especially if Girard continues his skid and Williams continues to flail on the court. Shannon is going to take over and continue his dominant start to quickly bury Syracuse, who will limp off to Notre Dame at 3-4.
