SU political scientists weigh in on what U.S. census results mean for New York

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New York state will lose one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after it came 89 residents short of keeping its 27 seats.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced the change Monday, stating that the House seat instead went to Minnesota, which also came close to losing the seat. This will be the fifth seat New York has lost in the past 30 years. 

Some lawmakers have expressed criticism of Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s preparation for the census, which took place largely during the pandemic. The state devoted $30 million dollars to the count, The New York Times reported, and Cuomo attributed the low numbers to former President Donald Trump’s criticism of the census. 

The governor called on the state attorney general Wednesday to review the state’s legal options in challenging the decision.

“So much of our state’s recovery, revitalization and resilience is dependent on having our voice heard in Washington, and we won’t allow Trump and his cronies to use one of our greatest attributes — our diversity — as an impediment,” Cuomo said in a press release.

While Cuomo has argued that New York isn’t truly losing residents, multiple professors at Syracuse University said the drop reflects existing migration trends, which have, over recent decades, shifted the U.S. population away from northeastern states to the southern “Sun Belt” states. Still, they said the change in seats could have both political and social implications down the line. 

If Cuomo’s challenge doesn’t go through, professors said the census outcome will marginally decrease New York’s influence in national politics. Given the balance of power in the state legislature, the redistricting process is more likely to take a seat from a Republican representative than a Democrat, said Steven White, an associate professor of political science at SU.

The state could combine some districts in upstate New York that are controlled by Republicans, causing Republicans to lose a seat, said Chris Faricy, an associate professor in political science.

“All the scenarios that I’m looking at would cause the Republicans to lose a seat in the state of New York,” Faricy said. “The question is how many and where they would be at.”

Roger Sharp, professor emeritus of history, agreed that the Democrats’ influence in New York state would make it unlikely for a Democratic representative to lose their district in the redrawing process. He also expects any redistricting to take place in upstate New York, far from New York City. 

That could mean that central New York or the Syracuse area could see its congressional districts change, Sharp said.

“The area in southern New York, around New York City, I’d be very surprised to see that area redrawn to shift the number of representatives to the upstate area,” he said. 

New York still has heavy congressional control, with the fourth-highest number of congressional seats in the House. Democrats will also likely rely on New York to make up for seats that other Republican seats gained, Faricy said. Texas gained two congressional seats after this year’s census.

“The states that gain seats are controlled by Republicans and therefore the Democratic Party is looking to New York, which has flexibility because of the losing one seat and Democrats controlling the state legislature, to help make up for the loss of seats they’re going to experience with states like Texas and Arizona adding seats,” Faricy said. 

The loss of a seat means less representation from New York on a national scale, said Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and professor of political science.

New York’s lower population count will mean the state receives fewer resources and less funding from the federal government, which is typically based on population. This could impact everything from Pell Grants to school lunches.

“All in all, there will be one less voice advocating for New York,” Reeher said.