Beat writers split on Syracuse’s chances to beat Arizona in 1st round of NCAA Tournament
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Coming off of a 78-65 loss to Florida State in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament quarterfinals, Syracuse earned a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Before the Orange faltered down the stretch of the season, they were in the conversation to be a top-four seed, thus hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament at the JMA Wireless Dome.
Instead, SU heads to Storrs, Connecticut, to play at the Harry A. Gampel Pavilion — the home of No. 3 seed UConn. In their first NCAA Tournament game under second-year head coach Felisha Legette-Jack, the Orange face No. 11 seed Arizona. The Wildcats defeated Auburn 69-59 in the First Four Thursday. The winner between SU and Arizona will face either UConn or No. 14 seed Jackson State Monday.
Here’s how our beat writers believe Syracuse (23-7, 13-5 ACC) will fare in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against Arizona (18-15, 8-10 Pac-12):
Zak Wolf
The end of the road
Syracuse 65, Arizona 70
I was the pessimist when it came to Syracuse’s ACC Tournament chances by predicting it to lose in the quarterfinals. The Orange never looked competitive against Florida State and were bounced out. It’s time for me once again to be doom and gloom and predict SU to lose.
Similar to Syracuse, Arizona is battle-tested with its brutal schedule in the Pac-12. The Wildcats have shown they can compete with some of the top teams in the country, defeating then-No. 15 Utah and then-No. 3 Stanford. Arizona also has single-digit losses to Colorado, UCLA, USC and Oregon State. While Syracuse has displayed the same competitiveness against top teams, the way it finished the season is concerning.
SU’s flaws are glaring. Slow starts and an overreliance on Dyaisha Fair to produce offense have been its Achilles’ heel all season. I don’t think these issues will magically vanish in the NCAA Tournament. Despite having a two-week layoff, it won’t benefit the Orange. Against Florida State, SU had a week-long break and look what happened.
Arizona will be in a rhythm coming off its win over Auburn. I don’t think Arizona is more talented than Syracuse, but with the long layoff combined with its other weaknesses, SU’s season will come to an end in Storrs.
Cooper Andrews
9 > 7
Syracuse 75, Arizona 69
The Orange have come way too far to lose to a seven-player rotation. Depth will make a major difference in what should be a close contest between Syracuse and Arizona. I see SU wearing down the Wildcats throughout the game with its nine-player rotation and pulling away in the fourth quarter for its first NCAA Tournament win of the Legette-Jack era.
The narrative around Arizona is that its defense is superior. But I don’t quite see the same thing. The Wildcats may average the 22nd-most steals per game in the country at more than 11 a contest, yet they also allow their opponents to shoot 42.4% from the field and nearly 48% from inside the arc. They also don’t rebound well, ranking among the bottom-25 teams in the nation in defensive boards per game (21.7).
For a Syracuse side that hauls in the fifth-most offensive rebounds per game (16.3) in all of Division I, it’s a clear mismatch down low, and the return of Izabel Varejão, who missed the ACC Tournament due to an illness, will put SU over the edge. Offensive boards from Varejão, Alyssa Latham, Saniaa Wilson and Kyra Wood will propel a load of second-chance 3s down the stretch from Fair. By that point, Arizona will be too gassed to mount a late surge.
Justin Girshon
Still dancing
Syracuse 74, Arizona 65
Ahead of Syracuse’s matchup versus Arizona, Legette-Jack revealed during a media availability Friday that Fair texted her earlier in the week asking “Can I have this last dance?” The graduate student is embarking on her final collegiate stretch, which won’t end versus Arizona.
While the Wildcats pose one of the better defenses in D-I, their offense isn’t nearly high-powered enough to keep up with SU’s. Posing only one double-digit per game scorer — Esmery Martinez — Arizona scores 69.9 points per game, the 86th best in D-I, per HerHoopStats.
Although they struggled over the final four games leading up to the NCAA Tournament, the Orange’s 74.4 points per game rank 37th in the nation and they have three players who score 10 or more points per game — Fair, Georgia Woolley and Alaina Rice.
Among the players on both teams, SU has far and away the best scorer in the game in Fair. Even if the Wildcats limit her, Fair is very unlikely to be silenced based on the volume of shots she takes. Though on the brightest stage, I think she will shine. Anchored by around 25 points from Fair, I predict Syracuse’s offense will be too much for Arizona to handle.
