Beat writers split on Syracuse’s chances to upset UConn in NCAA Tournament 2nd round
Get the latest Syracuse news delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our sports newsletter here.
For the first time since 2021, Syracuse won an NCAA Tournament game. Behind a heroic performance from Dyaisha Fair, the Orange defeated No. 11 seed Arizona 74-69 in the first round. Things looked bleak at times Saturday as SU trailed for most of the night and Fair had to exit briefly at the end of the third quarter due to a possible injury.
Fair returned early in the fourth, but the Orange still trailed by five with 3:16 remaining. Then, Fair took over. Two mid-range jumpers got SU within one before a pull-up 3 put it in front with 1:17 left. Another midrange capped off a personal 11-0 run to give her 32 points, boosting Syracuse to a win.
Next up for Syracuse is UConn. The Orange have plenty of history with the Huskies, most notably losing to them in the 2015-16 National Championship. Plenty has changed since then and even though UConn isn’t the dominating force it once was in college basketball, the program remains strong. The Huskies are led by first-team All-American Paige Bueckers and come into Monday’s matchup on a 10-game winning streak.
Here’s how our beat writers believe No. 6 seed Syracuse (24-7, 13-5 ACC) will fare against No. 3 seed UConn (30-5, 18-0 Big East) in the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament:
Zak Wolf
End of the road (Part 2)
Syracuse 62, UConn 78
You might be asking yourself why it says “Part 2” in my timeline. Well, it’s because I predicted Syracuse would get upset by Arizona in the first round. For large portions of the game, it looked like I’d be proven right, but the never-say-die attitude from Syracuse proved me wrong. Alas, this time the season will come to an end.
As good as Fair is, UConn’s Bueckers has just as much firepower. Bueckers scored 28 in the Huskies’ opening-round win over Jackson State and is one of the best all-around players in the country. She can take over games with her scoring but can also cause damage to her distribution. That’s where I think she’ll hurt the Orange. Fair can match Bueckers’ scoring, but the Huskies just have an overall better team.
Another factor is the home-court advantage in Storrs. Syracuse has done its best work at home this season, going 14-3 in the JMA Wireless Dome. It’s been a mixed bag for the Orange in hostile environments this season. It won over Notre Dame at Purcell Pavilion, but losses to NC State and Louisville on the road also stick out. The Huskies have one of the best attendance totals in the country with over 12,000 people coming to each game at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. It’s going to be loud on Monday and Syracuse will have a tough time adjusting.
Fair could keep Syracuse close in the first half if she gets hot, but in the end, UConn’s talent and experience will show and SU’s season will come to a halt.
Cooper Andrews
Plane tickets to Portland
Syracuse 85, UConn 84
As Michael Keaton’s Bruce Wayne in “Batman (1989)” once said: “You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts!” I’m in the spirit of March, and it’s past time for some madness.
It’s been 31 seasons since UConn last failed to qualify for the Sweet 16. It’s also been 32 seasons since the Orange last beat the Huskies. As improbable as it may seem, I think Syracuse is going to shock the world and pull off a historic upset over UConn.
An otherworldly performance from Fair as well as outlier stat lines from Georgia Woolley, Alyssa Latham and more will need to be present in order for SU to trounce the Huskies. Fair has shown over and over again that she can carry the team to victories. After all, she did it twice against Notre Dame — a higher seed than UConn.
The Orange won’t stop Bueckers. They won’t stop Aaliyah Edwards, either. They may not even stop Ashlynn Shade. But if they can muster some key performances from their supporting cast — like when Latham posted a double-double to defeat Notre Dame the first time, or when Alaina Rice clamped Hannah Hidalgo late to complete the season sweep — Fair can do the rest. She possesses the ultimate killer instinct, and her 32-point explosion versus Arizona will be small fry compared to the dominance she exerts upon the Huskies.
Justin Girshon
All good things must come to an end
Syracuse 67, UConn 80
From the time Syracuse stepped foot in Storrs, Connecticut, for its closed-door scrimmage before the season, a lot has changed. The ACC’s preseason Blue Ribbon Panel predicted the Orange to finish ninth in the conference. ESPN didn’t mention them among potential surprises in the country.
Yet, what ensued was a magical season. SU tied its program record winning 23 regular season games. Then, despite a dud in the ACC Tournament, Syracuse won its first NCAA Tournament game since 2021, defeating Arizona 74-69.
No matter how you chalk it up, the Orange’s season is a success by all means. Unfortunately — especially because Fair will be moving on to the WNBA — all good things must come to an end. Though UConn is a No. 3 seed, its metrics show it’s closer to a top-four team in D-I rather than top-12.
The Huskies, according to HerHoopStats, have the fifth-best offensive rating and second-best defensive rating in the country. Meanwhile, Syracuse’s offensive rating ranks 42nd while its defensive rating ranks 71st. Simply put, the Huskies are a much better team than the Orange, and I think that’ll show Monday night.
