Opponent Preview: What to know about No. 16 Illinois

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Syracuse is now on an early-season, two-game skid following a close loss to St. John’s and an emotionally charged, one-point loss to Bryant. The Bulldogs jumped out to an 11-point lead in the first half and held on despite efforts from Justin Taylor after Judah Mintz’s ejection. That was against Group of 5 opponents, and SU’s next opponent, No. 16 Illinois, provides its first real test of the season.

The Illini are rebounding from an early exit from the NCAA Tournament and are now without big man Kofi Cockburn. They’ve gotten off to a prolific start, downing nonconference opponents and falling only to then-No. 16 Virginia in a tight matchup on the road. They’re led by Terrence Shannon Jr., a Texas Tech transfer who’s averaging 20.3 points per game and 6.2 rebounds per game. Illinois is the seventh-best team in the country in two-point shooting percentage and is firing 37.7% from deep. It faces off against the Orange for the first time since 1995.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Illini.

All-time series

Illinois leads 2-1.

Last time they played

Syracuse hasn’t faced off against Illinois in 27 years, when the Orange beat the Illini in the first game of the Rainbow Classic in Hawaii. A season that would end up with Syracuse falling to Kentucky in the 1996 National Championship game started with Syracuse winning its first 11 games of the season. Though Illinois came in with a .500 record, it held close to the Orange, ending the first half tied at 34-34. While neither team did particularly well from beyond the arc — SU finished at 23.1% and the Illini at 16.7% — Syracuse went 24-of-32 on free throws to seal the game in the second half.

Marius Janulis led the Orange with 18 points, and John Wallace finished with a double-double in the victory. While Illinois forward Jerry Gee totalled 21 points and added 12 rebounds on 8-of-10 shooting, only one other Illini finished with more than 10 points, and the team shot below 40%. To overcome poor shooting on 3-pointers, SU finished shooting 42.1% from the field and had five players finish with at least 10 points.

KenPom odds

Illinois has an 81% chance of winning, with a projected score of 76-67.

Stephanie Zaso | Design Editor

The Illini report

Illinois is right where everyone expected it to be. The Illini are 5-1 after beating down nonconference opponents, narrowly escaping from a solid UCLA team and falling to then-No. 16 Virginia. There’s a lot to like about Illinois’ offense, one that is fifth in effective field-goal percentage. Led by Shannon and Dain Dainja, the Illini are set up for another postseason run carried by an offense that averages 84.7 points per game and a team that totals 40.2 rebounds per game.

They have three players averaging double-digit points per game and are shooting 37.7% from deep, which should prove effective against an SU defense that has struggled stopping the long ball. Against Virginia, the Illini put up 26 shots from deep, connecting on nine. Illinois also has the 39th-most efficient offense in the country and will likely apply pressure to a Syracuse team that itself has had success putting up tons of points on opponents.

Defensively, the Illini are equipped to stop Judah Mintz from taking over the game and ensure Joe Girard III has yet another poor shooting game. It doesn’t have the height underneath the basket that it had with Kofi Cockburn, but the 6-foot-10 Coleman Hawkins is averaging over five rebounds per game and can provide a formidable stopgap to Jesse Edwards. Opponents are shooting below 30% from deep against the Illini and hold teams to just a 42.3% effective field-goal rate.

How Syracuse beats Illinois

An upset in Champaign starts off with a good game from Girard. Whether or not Mintz plays or Benny Williams is effective, Girard needs to demonstrate his ability to be a shooter again. He shot a measly 2-of-22 from the field and 1-of-12 on 3-pointers over the last two games. It starts with Girard and ends with Syracuse, by any means possible, getting to the free-throw line. Syracuse is hitting on 73.7% of its free-throw shots, good enough for 84th in the country. The Orange aren’t great from the line, but can utilize it to slow the game down against an efficient offense.

They also can send Illinois to the free-throw line, where the Illini are 281st nationally. It’s tempting for the Orange, but head coach Jim Boeheim has singled out multiple players — mostly Edwards — as being too aggressive and in foul trouble too quickly. Regardless, no team has put up more than 70 points against the Illini. But as long as its key players perform like it should, SU could have an upset on its hands.

Stat to know: 62.1%

Illinois’ two-point shooting percentage is 62.1%, which is seventh-best in the country. The Illini are a dynamic offense that have been held below 70 points just once, against a vaunted Virginia defense. They put up 103 points against Monmouth, and even dropped 79 points against UCLA. Syracuse can shift between the 2-3 defense and man defense as much as Boeheim wants, but the reality is, Illinois is going to have its way. The Orange’s opponents are only shooting 45% from inside the arc, but SU hasn’t faced a team that’s this good on two-pointers thus far.

Player to watch: Terrence Shannon Jr., guard, No. 0

He’s No. 10 in KenPom’s Player of the Year standings thus far after being named to the Preseason All-Big Ten Team prior to his first year with the Illini.

Through his first six games with Illinois, Shannon is averaging 20.3 points per game, 6.2 rebounds per game and has 23 assists. He’s going to be a formidable threat to Syracuse’s defense, especially because he’s shooting 47.1% from deep on 34 attempts.