Data Dive: The numbers defining No. 22 Syracuse’s undefeated start

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Similar to last season, No. 22 Syracuse heads into its bye week one win shy of bowl eligibility. But this year, the Orange are undefeated and ranked for the first time since 2019. New systems have been introduced on offense and the team’s youngest players have made their mark.

Just two years after winning just one game in 2020, Syracuse has a perfect record. However, the Orange’s biggest tests have yet to come, as three ranked opponents and Notre Dame await them. 

Here are the stats to know about SU’s perfect season so far:

Shrader’s arm is paying off

Last season, Garrett Shrader averaged 19.5 passes per game with a 52.6% completion rate. In 2022, Shrader’s gone just one game under a 65% completion rate, which came against Purdue — the only game where he failed to break 230 passing yards.

Robert Anae’s new offensive system has improved Shrader’s passing numbers. Syracuse has used Shrader 13% less in its rushing game than it did in 2021, per College Football Data. With Shrader being the focal point of offense, he has averaged 0.522 Predicted Points Added (PPA) per passing play.

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Shrader’s quarterback efficiency ranks eighth nationally at 175.90. With his completion percentage of 70.9%, he’s on pace to shatter last season’s passing numbers.

This has allowed for less dependence on Sean Tucker and opened up more receiving options. Between Syracuse’s top-three receivers last year — Courtney Jackson, Anthony Queely and Damien Alford — only Jackson was involved in over 5% of the team’s offensive plays. This season, all three of Shrader’s main targets have all-purpose usage rates of 5% or greater. 

Oronde Gadsden II leads at 7%, with a 17% mark in the passing game — the same as Sean Tucker and a percentage point higher than Jackson’s passing usage last season. Behind Gadsden, Devaughn Cooper and Jackson sit at six and five percent, respectively, but still combine to account for a quarter of Shrader’s targets this season.

Stopping the run

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Syracuse’s defense has conceded under 100 rushing yards in three games. It held Wagner to 31 this past Saturday, its fewest since Sept. 18 of last year when Albany ran for seven yards. SU tackled Wagner for a cumulative loss of 43 rushing yards, its most since forcing 44 negative yards against UConn.

Syracuse has averaged 95 rushing yards allowed per game through five games, 17th-best nationally. The Orange defense’s power success against the run game — which takes into account the effectiveness of the team’s linemen and backs — has increased by 5% from last season, to 80%, per College Football Data. Syracuse has one of the most explosive defenses against the run in the country, where it adds .099 points added per play.

Conversely, Syracuse conceded a substantial amount of rushing yards against ACC opponents Louisville and Virginia. The Cardinals currently rank 22nd nationally with 209 rushing yards per game.

Syracuse’s defense has allowed an average of 3.39 yards per rushing attempt, ranking 35th nationally. Of Syracuse’s next seven opponents, only Florida State ranks within the top 50 rushing offenses in the country.

Near-perfect around the end zone

Syracuse is currently 23-for-24 in the red-zone this season, only failing to score in its 59-0 win over Wagner because the game clock ran out. Still, Syracuse sits tied for first in the country in red-zone conversion percentage and scored touchdowns on 62.5% of those conversions, settling for field goals on eight redzone drives.

Last season, Syracuse’s failures to score inside the 20 cost it two crucial ACC wins that could’ve put the team in a bowl game. In the Orange’s three-point losses to both Clemson and Florida State, they missed out on a redzone drive with an interception and a turnover on downs, respectively.

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Andre Szmyt is 10-for-11 on field goals this season, missing just a 41-yarder against Purdue, which is an improvement from when he missed two field goals in the redzone last year. He made four redzone field goals against Virginia, holding off the Cavaliers’ second-half comeback and capping it off with a game-winning 31-yard kick.

Defensively, Syracuse has been nearly as effective at preventing redzone scores. While opponents have scored 75% of the time in the redzone, the Orange have only surrendered eight drives. Through five games last season, Syracuse allowed its opponents into the redzone 19 times and gave up 15 scores.