Beat writers predict No. 3 seed Syracuse’s NCAA Tournament path

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No. 3 seed Syracuse will face the winner of Loyola and Hofstra in the Carrier Dome on Sunday, in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Orange’s 14-3 season earned them a first-round bye and home-field advantage for the second round.

SU went deep in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament but fell to North Carolina in the title game, 9-4. The Orange are looking for revenge in their eighth consecutive NCAA appearance, but they will be without All-Americans Emily Hawryschuk and Megan Carney.

Here’s what The Daily Orange beat writers predict will happen in the NCAA Tournament.

Gaurav Shetty
Will the offense be just fine?
Loss to Northwestern in Final Four

Syracuse’s season has been dominated by knee injuries. First, it was Hawryschuk who tore her ACL, and then Carney. Vanessa Costantino also joined them on the sidelines with an undisclosed injury. But the Orange have managed to effectively replace two All-Americans with Emma Ward filling in for Hawryschuk, and Emma Tyrrell stepping in for Carney. It’s worked as Syracuse finished the season 14-3 and made it to the final of the ACC Tournament. One of those losses was against Boston College in the game Carney went down, but even then Syracuse managed to rectify that loss with 16-7 and 19-17 wins within the following week. But the two losses to North Carolina provided a glimpse into Syracuse’s ceiling in the NCAA Tournament.

The winner of Loyola and Hofstra will not pose a threat to SU, as the Orange have already beaten Loyola this season, while Hofstra finished 6-6 and was not featured in the final Inside Lacrosse rankings of the season. After that, Syracuse will likely play the winner of Florida and Jacksonville. The sixth-seeded Gators are just one of two non-ACC teams in the top seven. Florida does have upset potential against Syracuse, as the Gators boast the third-best scoring offense and second-best scoring defense in the nation. However, Florida played most of its games against unranked opponents, while Syracuse played a number of top-10 teams in the ACC. In the end, Syracuse should prevail against Florida and move onto the Final Four.

But the Final Four is where it ends for Syracuse. Head coach Gary Gait deserves a lot of credit for finding solutions every time the Orange have lost a key player to injury. However, overcoming the losses of Hawryschuk and Carney will prove too high a hill to climb against Northwestern. Led by the nation’s leading scorer Izzy Scane, the Wildcats have the nation’s best offense. Against UNC, it was the star power of Jamie Ortega and Katie Hoeg that made the difference. Even with a near-perfect display from Asa Goldstock and her defense, the Orange scored just four goals on an elite Tar Heels’ defense. So after a valiant effort this season, the Orange will eventually hit their ceiling in the Final Four and bow out to Northwestern.

Skyler Rivera
Achilles’ Tar Heel
Final Four loss to Northwestern

Let’s keep this brief. This team is great, but its play in the ACC Tournament confirmed its Achilles’ heel: North Carolina. In its two matchups with the Tar Heels, the Orange were limited to just six and four goals, respectively. Syracuse’s offense just doesn’t have what it takes to beat No. 1 seed North Carolina this season. Unless Gait and his team made significant changes to its offense between the ACC title game and now, I predict Syracuse will go far in the tournament — and probably make it to the championship game — but fall again at the hands of the Tar Heels. This season, the third time is not the charm.

In its season opener, Syracuse blew past Loyola, 18-6, with the help of Hawryschuk’s four goals. Despite Hawryschuk’s season-ending injury days after SU’s win over Loyola, the Greyhounds’ offense came nowhere near rivaling Syracuse’s offense. Expect Syracuse to easily advance past the second round and onto the winner of Florida and Jacksonville.

On the surface, Florida looks good. The Gators hold the third-best scoring offense in the nation, but they played way less experienced teams than the Orange. Syracuse played nine top-10 teams this season, while Florida only played two top-10 teams. The Gators notched five goals against UNC on Feb. 19, similar to Syracuse’s six and four. So, if there’s any chance of Syracuse being upset, it could be against the Gators. Florida is unpredictable since the Orange never faced it or any other American Athletic Conference team this season. Syracuse is in a similar situation with Jacksonville. The Dolphins have only played one ACC team — a 10-9 overtime win against Virginia Tech, a team the Orange beat 17-10 on March 27 and 9-4 in the first round of the ACC Tournament. In their one meeting, Jacksonville narrowly beat Florida, 12-11 on March 13. With both Florida and Jacksonville being foreign opponents for the Orange, there’s a possibility for an upset, but I predict SU will prevail to the Final Four.

Syracuse will most likely face No. 2 seed Northwestern in the Final Four. The Orange haven’t faced Northwestern since Feb. 22, 2020, when SU notched 16 goals to beat NU, 16-11. In 2019, the Wildcats ended the Orange’s season in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in an 18-14 loss in Evanston, Illinois. In 2019, Syracuse had Carney and Hawryschuk, but this year both All-Americans are out for the season with ACL injuries. Syracuse doesn’t have the offensive power to stop Scane, the NCAA’s leading goal scorer. Expect Syracuse’s title dreams to end in the Final Four with a defeat at the hands of Northwestern. Back to the drawing board, Syracuse.

Anish Vasudevan
Youth takeover
Title game loss to North Carolina

With the absence of Carney and Hawryschuk in the ACC Tournament, Syracuse needed its youth to step up. Freshman Emma Ward and sophomore Emma Tyrrell took up the challenge and for the most part, they delivered.

In a scoring fest against Boston College, Ward finished with five goals and one assist in SU’s 19-17 win. Emma Tyrrell was the second-leading scorer for the Orange in that game with four goals of her own.

The reason for both Emmas’ success is because of the opposing defenses focusing on Meaghan Tyrrell, Syracuse’s leading scorer this season. Boston College would collapse on Meaghan Tyrrell, opening Ward inside the 8-meter, where she was able to find all five of her scores. In the first few rounds of the NCAA Tournament, opposing defenses will again move their attention towards Meaghan Tyrrell, and Ward should be able to take advantage of that once again.

The challenge for the Orange comes in the quarterfinals, which would most likely be against No.6 seed Florida. Syracuse’s biggest defensive challenge this season was North Carolina, the nation’s leading scoring defense. But right behind the Tar Heels is the Gators, who only allow 6.78 goals per game. Florida only lost two games this season, one of which was against UNC when it held the ACC champions to 11 goals. Syracuse needs to use its motion offense and find Ward and others inside the 8-meter to exploit the Gators’ strong defense and head to the Final Four.

In the Final Four, the Orange will likely face No. 2 seed Northwestern, a team SU hasn’t faced this season. Syracuse will need not just its youth, but its veterans as well, especially on the defensive end. Despite losing in the ACC title game, Syracuse held North Carolina to nine goals, and if the Orange repeat that defensive performance against the Wildcats, they can win.

The road ends in the NCAA championship as Syracuse will likely face its kryptonite: No. 1 seed North Carolina. The Orange tried changing their defense against the Tar Heels the last time the two faced each other but still fell to UNC for the third time this season. Still, a trip to the championship game without two of their stars is enough for the Orange, who will still have another shot at a title next season.