Beat writers predict No. 2 seed Syracuse’s ACC Tournament chances

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No. 2 seed Syracuse opens the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament on Wednesday against No. 7 seed Virginia Tech.

The Orange enter the postseason without leading scorer Megan Carney, who tore her ACL against Boston College on Thursday and is out for the season. Syracuse could potentially meet No. 3 seed Boston College in the semifinal and No. 1 seed North Carolina in the final, both of which are teams SU lost to during the regular season.

Here’s what our beat writers expect to happen in the tournament:

Gaurav Shetty
Feelin’ Baby Blue
Floor: Semifinal loss
Ceiling: Loss to UNC in championship game

Syracuse should breeze past Virginia Tech in the first round. The gap between Syracuse’s caliber and that of Virginia Tech is too steep for the Hokies to have a chance. The only reason the pair’s first meeting was close was the unusually high number of free positions the Orange gave away, which allowed the Hokies to keep pace offensively in the first half. In the second half, Syracuse showed its firepower to pull away for a fairly routine victory.

The second round is where SU will face a true challenge. Virginia beating Boston College would lead to an easy matchup for the Orange, but the Eagles will more than likely await Syracuse in the semifinal. The two teams split a two-game series to end the season: the first was a one-goal loss for SU, and the second was a dominant 16-7 victory for the Orange. If the game is anything like the latter matchup, Syracuse will be headed to its first ACC Tournament final since 2017. But I expect this game to be much closer because SU will have trouble containing the ACC’s scoring leader, Charlotte North, again. In the end, I think Syracuse’s defense finds a way to stifle the Eagles offense.

North Carolina is virtually a lock to make it to the final. If there’s a chance of an upset, it will come from the Notre Dame-Duke matchup. Both teams came closest to spoiling the Tar Heels’ undefeated season, as they both lost by just one goal in their respective games against North Carolina. If the winner of the Notre Dame-Duke matchup upsets UNC in the semifinal, Syracuse will immediately become the favorite to win the ACC Tournament, but that’s unlikely. Instead, Syracuse and UNC will meet in the final, and even without Carney, I expect the final score to be closer than the season-low six goals the Orange scored the first time out. In the end, UNC’s dynamic duo of Jamie Ortega and Katie Hoeg will prove too much for SU while the Orange play without their duo of Emily Hawryschuk and Carney. With Hawryschuk and Carney healthy, this is a different game, but now, the Orange will have to wait another year to capture their first ACC championship since 2015.

Maya Goosmann | Design Editor

Skyler Rivera
Tar for your Heels
Floor: A loss to Boston College in the semifinals
Ceiling: A loss to UNC in championship game

Syracuse defeated Virginia Tech 17-10 earlier this season. The No. 7-seeded Hokies put up a fight in the first half of that game, but don’t expect VT to put up the same fight again. We’ve seen Gary Gait transform SU prior to playing an opponent for the second time, adjusting SU’s defense before the Boston College rematch and holding its offense to a season-low seven goals. This quarterfinal matchup will be no different.

The second round poses challenges for Syracuse. No. 3 seed Boston College will breeze past No. 6 seed Virginia in the first round, leading to a semifinal matchup against Syracuse. The two teams concluded the regular season with the same record (12-2, 8-2 ACC), and the determining factor between the two teams’ seeding was the score differential of SU’s 16-7 win. Expect this matchup to be a close game that’s similar to game one, where Boston College bested the Orange by one goal, 14-13. I predict that Syracuse will narrowly beat Boston College after making offensive adjustments this week and advancing to its first ACC Tournament final in six years.

UNC and Syracuse have reigned at the top of ACC standings all season. It will be no surprise if the two teams meet in the championship game. But as Gaurav predicted above, Ortega and Hoeg will easily bypass Syracuse’s defense and defeat a Syracuse team without Hawryschuk and Carney. If you asked me at the beginning of the season, I would’ve predicted Syracuse to take the title. But without leading goal-scorers Hawryschuk and Carney, the Orange just don’t have the offensive power to beat the Tar Heels.

Anish Vasudevan
Second time’s the charm
Floor: Quarterfinals loss to Virginia Tech
Ceiling: Winning the ACC title

Gait and his coaching staff reign supreme in changing up game plans before facing a team again. Against BC, the Eagles handed the Orange their second loss of the regular season. The game was an offensive battle that the Eagles won 14-13, scoring on just 19 shots. But in the latter game of the double-header, Syracuse completely changed its defensive setup from a zone to a man-to-man, holding BC to a season-low seven goals.

These schematic adjustments are something the Orange need to use throughout the ACC Tournament. The Hokies capitalized on SU’s 42 fouls during the teams’ first matchup, scoring six of 10 goals at the free position. Fouls are an issue SU has since resolved. In the second half, VT didn’t have any answers for SU’s offense. The Orange erased a 7-7 halftime score with six goals from Carney and four from Meaghan Tyrrell.

If Syracuse beats the Hokies, it would likely face No. 3 Boston College in the semifinals. The key to beating the Eagles is containing North, the No. 7 scorer in the nation. The Orange’s defense had success against North with their man-to-man look, holding her to one shot and no points in the first half. If SU can replicate that, it will likely breeze by the Eagles to the ACC title game.

The Orange need to improve their defense to upset the Tar Heels, and they should also rely on man-to-man defense against the Tar Heels. North Carolina was able to expose all the holes in SU’s zone, and North Carolina wouldn’t expect the Orange to make a change to their man-to-man. In SU’s 17-6 loss to the Tar Heels, its offense didn’t stick to the regular weave motion, too. It continued to charge the cage, which UNC capitalized on. After SU lost to UNC, the entire remainder of the season has been about improving to face the Tar Heels again in the postseason. If the Orange want a chance against North Carolina, Gait needs to make sure that they give completely different looks on both sides of the field.